Folks, we are BACK! It’s time once again to sleep on the couch because you bet your mortgage on a team comfortably holding the -6.5 line until a kicker who will be cut in three weeks nails a meaningless field goal to cover the spread.
How did we do last year?
Overall: 35-33-0 (51.4%)
Bet Your Mortgage: 9-8-0 (52.9%)
How does Week 1 look and what are the best games to throw some money at? Let’s check it out!
Note: I used Bovada’s odds on Thursday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans (over 53.5)
As Will Brinson pointed out in his column, over 70 percent of Week 1 and Week 2 games hit the over after the 2011 lockout — the only slightly comparable situation to this year when the lock down cancelled most of the offseason training. Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes are prime suspects to bring back that trend.
Bet on these two teams to combine for at least 54 points.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (over 48.0)
The Saints have Drew Brees and just about their entire offense in tact from what has lowkey been a very productive run in the NFC over the past few seasons. The Buccaneers have Tom Brady leading what is, on paper, a very good offense. The scoring will be high, folks. Very high.
Bet on these two teams to combine for more than 48 points.
New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Doth mine eyes deceive me? Bill Belichick is favored by less than a touchdown at home to a division foe who will be competing for the No. 1 overall pick. No. No way. This is the one game where I really like the line.
Bet on the Patriots to win by at least a touchdown.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (over 45.0)
Philip Rivers has had a field day in recent years against the Jaguars and while he’s in a less productive offense, I just don’t see him letting up. Jacksonville’s defense has gotten worse over the offseason, but their receiving corps has improved just as much. This is going to be a fun won, even if Gardner Minshew is likely to lose.
Bet on these two teams to combine for more than 45 points.
Bet Your Mortgage: 0-0-0