clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Simulating the 2020 NFL season: Jacksonville Jaguars go 3-13

New Orleans Saints v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

If ESPN has their way, the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be bad in 2020.

Very, very, very bad.

Every year before the season, ESPN runs 20,000 simulations of the season ahead to give us the best picture of how the year will unfold. Admittedly, there’s some creative license — and they didn’t average the results, only taking one of the simulations they thought best captured everything — but let’s see how our Jaguars did.

Last year, ESPN’s simulation had us going 8-8 with the collapse coming shortly after the London game before our bye week. Hmmm.

2020 NFL season simulation

Week 1: Jaguars lose 34-7 to Colts (0-1)

Week 2: Jaguars lose 27-19 to Titans (0-2)

Week 3: Jaguars win 28-9 over Dolphins (1-2)

Week 4: Jaguars lose 18-17 to Bengals (1-3)

Week 5: Jaguars lose 28-21 to Texans (1-4)

Week 6: Jaguars win 34-21 over Lions (2-4)

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: Jaguars lose 19-9 to Chargers (2-5)

Week 9: Jaguars lose 34-31 to Texans (2-6)

Week 10: Jaguars lose 34-17 to Packers (2-7)

Week 11: Jaguars lose 37-23 to Steelers (2-8)

Week 12: Jaguars lose 14-13 to Browns (2-9)

Week 13: Jaguars win 37-24 over Vikings (3-9)

Week 14: Jaguars lose 34-31 to Titans (3-10)

Week 15: Jaguars lose 24-10 to Ravens (3-11)

Week 16: Jaguars lose 28-6 to Bears (3-12)

Week 17: Jaguars lose 9-7 to Colts (3-13)

Observations

Well then...

First, this 3-13 season is good enough to get the No. 1 draft pick. So, if you’re gonna lose then lose big, right? Don’t let a bad season go unrewarded. And with that No. 1 pick, you have to get Trevor Lawrence. I can’t see how Gardner Minshew could be worth keeping as your starting quarterback after a season where you’re guaranteed a losing season before December and you’re out of playoff contention two weeks before Thanksgiving. Jake Luton is getting starts at that point.

Also, a win over the Vikings? On the road? To break up a 10-game losing streak? Okay.

It’s also interesting that six of these losses is by one possession or less. It means the team would be primed for an improved season in 2021, but it also means any one of these weeks could be the one we flub up our chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

All in all, a disappointing season... worse than I think we’ll be even with all the departures and youth throughout the roster.

What do you think? Do you see this Jaguars team finishing the year at 3-13? Or will we win a few of those close losses and finish around the 6-10 record we did last year? Let us know in the comments below!