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Week 11 NFL picks: What are you betting in Jaguars vs. 49ers?

Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars came crashing back down to Earth last week with a poor offensive showing but a (refreshingly! surprisingly!) good defense against the Indianapolis Colts. Now they’re up against the San Francisco 49ers, who will be making a cross-country trek to play an early game at TIAA Bank Field.

Let’s do this.

It’s time to take a look at the best games on tap for this week, the betting lines, and our thoughts on who will win. Add your predictions in the comments if you’re feeling especially lucky.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 11 picks

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) vs. Chicago Bears (3-6)

Point spread: Ravens -5.5, Bears +5.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Moneyline: Ravens -235, Bears +190
My pick: Ravens -5.5

Both teams have poor third down offenses, but check out this little tidbit from Will Brinson over at CBS Sports.

“The Ravens and Bears are both bad at third-down conversions on offense (29th and 28th, respectively). But the Ravens are much better on defense at stopping the same conversions, second in the NFL (32%) versus the Bears at 14th (40%). Additionally, Baltimore is an elite red-zone team on offense (70% of the time it scores a touchdown) and defense (44% allowing one), while Chicago is below average in red-zone conversions (54%).”

Bet on the Ravens to win by at least a touchdown. And if there’s a prop bet involving Mark Andrews, go for it.

Tennessee Titans (8-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-8)

Point spread: Titans -9.5, Texans +9.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Moneyline: Titans -435, Texans +330
My pick: Under 44.5

I almost bet the Texans +9.5 line, and I might still do that over the top, but the Titans offense is down bad without Derrick Henry and the Texans are... well... the Texans.

Bet on (and pray for) a boring game.

Green Bay Packers (8-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

Point spread: Packers -1, Vikings +1
Over/Under: 46.5
Moneyline: Packers -110, Packers -110
My pick: Packers -1

Are we going to pretend that betting on an angry Aaron Rodgers to (essentially) beat the Vikings is a bad bet? Really?

Bet on the Packers to... well... win the game.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

Point spread: Jaguars +7, 49ers -7
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Jaguars +230, 49ers -290
My pick: Under 45.5

I’m not going to even try to pretend that I know what the Jaguars are at this point. Over the last two games, they’ve had a good defense and a bad offense. That could all change any given week because, as I’ve long said, the Jaguars are AMERICA’S CHAOS TEAM.

Bet on the Jaguars to lose, but for their good defense (and bad offense) to keep it well under.