FanPost

Jags @ Colts Preview

The Titans are winning the AFC South and the Jaguars aren’t making the Playoffs. That doesn’t mean we should give up on this season.

This is not only a rivalry game, but is important for several reasons. Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer are both looking for their 1st road win. And Jacksonville is looking for its first road win within the division since…2017 (yep).

GAME INFO

JAX @ IND

Sunday 11/14

Lucas Oil Stadium

1:00pm ET | CBS

Spread: IND -10.5

Over/Under: 47.5

Avg. Home Att. = 60,627 (27th)

OPPONENT PREVIEW

The Colts enter this game 8th in scoring offense at 27.2 points per game, and scoring on 44.3% of their drives (6th in NFL). This is on the heels of a balanced outing against the NY Jets, in which Indy put up 45 points.

They aren’t an especially explosive offense - but they make up for it with balance and efficiency and keeping the pressure on the defense. They’ve thrown just 4 INT’s all season, they are 4th in 1st downs gained, have the 3rd-fewest offensive penalties, and are 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt, with a great duo in Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines.

So why are they only 4-5? Situational defense, red zone play and a slow start against a very tough schedule. Here are their losses:

  • Seahawks (with Russell Wilson in Week 1)
  • Rams (27-24)
  • @ Titans (25-16)
  • @ Ravens (31-25 OT)
  • Titans (34-31 OT)
So while they are a 4-5 team…they look like a team that is at least in the top half of the league overall in terms of capabilities. One could argue their losses are against Super Bowl contenders (and losing to Russell Wilson in the season opener doesn’t mean you’re a bad team).

PICK

The Colts are at home, and the Jaguars have not won a divisional road game since Week 7 of the 2017 season. This helps explain why the Colts are 10.5-point favorites, and FPI gives them 78.1% odds to win the matchup.

But Jacksonville is coming off its best defensive performance of the year, holding Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to just 6 points. If they can play anywhere near that level on D while Trevor and the offense take a step forward, this is definitely a winnable game.

I can’t get my mind past the fact that the Jags have lost 11 straight divisional road games. They haven’t won an AFC South game on the road in over 4 years. Until that changes, they’ll be away dogs for a reason - but I will take them to cover.

IND 27 | JAX 20
Under (47.5)

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