Good Luck Trevor you will need it..

So its official.. We are throwing the kids to the wolves and it is to be expected, as that is what BAD teams do..

It is also what college coaches whose players are interchangeable do. So that is what we are obviously doing now.

Sadly we have seen this play out before time and again. Rookie Coach, with shiny new #1 QB draft pick..

Blaine Gabbert / Blake Bortles anyone ?

So with no patience, they throw their rookie QB Savior into the fire and hope he can make all things better. Which in the end will either see his confidence get busted, or a season ending injury happen.

Lets look at a few of #1 QB Draft picks that went to bad teams over the last 10 years.

2011 :
Jake Locker - By 2012 he was injured and by 2014 cut
Blaine Gabbert - Ugh...

2012 :
Robert Griffin III - Injured over the season.. never the same. Somehow still a back-up ( Italic = Injured first year)
Ryan Tannehill - Broke Marinos Rookie Records, but due to the team being just bad.. never saw better than 8-8
Brandon Weeden - Injured first season traded by 3rd ( Strikethru = just a Bad draft pick.. period )

EJ Manuel (Bold = 1st QB pick in the draft that year ) - Broken first year

Blake Bortles - Two words Gus Bradley...
Johnny Manziel - Hahahahaha
Teddy Bridgewater - Broken First year, now on 4th team and starter for Broncos.

2015 :
Jameis Winston - Started first year on bad team with new coach.. never really recovered
Marcus Mariota - Started 1st year and broken first year.. Backup on Raiders

2016 :
Jared Goff - Started halfway through season.. went on to Pro Bowl in 2017 second year
Paxton Lynch - Who.. ? ( Played for Denver for 2 years and now in CFL )

2017 :
Mitchell Trubisky - Jury out.. Chicago coaching was a mess.. and now with Bills. Started Game 5 first year

2018 :
Josh Rosen: Played poorly first year, enough that Arizona traded him the following year and got Kyler Murray. Cut from Dolphins and Backup at Atlanta now.

2019 :
Dwayne Haskins - Injured first year, Back up at Steelers

2020 :
Joe Burrow : Season Ended 7th game with injury - Jury Out
Tua Tagovailoa - Jury is out.

There are others that did do well, and most actually quite recently (Especially 2018-2019)

2011 : Cam Newton - Panthers
2012 : Andrew Luck - Colts
2018 : Baker Mayfield - Browns
2018 : Sam Darnold - Jets
2018 : Josh Allen - Bills
2019 : Kyler Murray - Cardinals
2019 : Daniel Jones - Giants

Most that did well were on teams that had been properly built, and/or had lost their starting QB.

In the last 10 years there have been 27 First Round QB picks..

2 - Were truly consistent and made the team
2 - From last season where the Jury is still out on both..
5 - Still have promise and are still on their original team
5 - Proved to be colossal failures and bad picks in general
7 - Injured in the first year and never recovered

So in short we have:

18 QBs didn't amount to much either due to injury or talent
9 QBs that lived up to their potential

So we have a 33% shot, we could double those odds IF Trevor doesn't get injured the first year. There is also the 3 times the charm thing the Browns are on ( Only other team on list, other than Jaguars with 3 #1 round draft picks at the QB position.. )

Which is the issue here, I feel our Offensive Line is a mess, and Trevor has no one that can get open. Same issue the team had last year and a lot of that I feel wasn't addressed and I have seen nothing in the preseason that makes me feel any different.

Could I be wrong ? Totally..

Could Trevor turn the team around single handedly ? Sure and I would be ecstatic if he did.

Should he get the start like a high school phenom coming into a division 1 school ? NO

The road to being a great QB and leading the team season in and season out is a patient one. Meyer is treating this all like a College coach, and the team like a College team, and treating Trevor as a he would any new recruit he has to get 4 years out of.

That said, as much as talent, and coaching is important in having a winning season. In the NFL luck can be a bigger one, being lucky and not getting injured, being lucky and having calls go your way, etc..

So Good Luck Trevor.. You will need it.

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