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Week 5 NFL power rankings

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Syndication: Florida Times-Union Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL power rankings following Week 5 of the 2022 season -- where I tell you when it is and isn’t okay to fall under the spell of recency bias.

The prompt: if a playoff game at a neutral site were played tomorrow, who would win?

1. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

The Raiders put up a heckuva fight on Monday Night Football, but Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes.

2. Buffalo Bills (4-1)

The Bills are the best overall team in the league. I’ve been a little stubborn by keeping the Chiefs at #1 due to their quarterback, but Buffalo has a chance to make me eat my rankings this week when they play in Kansas City.

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)

6. San Francisco 49ers (3-2)

7. Dallas Cowboys (4-1)

Last week: 9

8. Miami Dolphins (3-2)

Last week: 7

A blowout loss at the hands of the Jets is never a good look, but Teddy Bridgewater played just one snap before entering concussion protocol. Considering Miami was down to its third-string rookie quarterback -- something named Skylar Thompson -- I can’t push them down too far.

9. Minnesota Vikings (4-1)

Last week: 11

10. Green Bay Packers (3-2)

Last week: 8

Saquan Barkley is playing like the best back in the league and Green Bay has a brutal run defense, so last week’s loss in London shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise. With that said, the post-Davante Adams Packers have not been inspiring.

This is still a playoff team as long as Matt LeFleur is coaching and Aaron Rodgers is playing, but Green Bay doesn’t feel like a threat to reach the Super Bowl through five weeks. They do have a potential get-right spot this week against New York’s other football team.

11. Los Angeles Rams (2-3)

Last week: 10

Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions but nobody else on the Rams can get open. Even if anyone could, Matt Stafford rarely has enough time to get the ball out. He’s taken the most sacks in the league, and only Justin Fields and Daniel Jones have a higher sack rate.

However, Los Angeles also just played the NFL’s top-two defenses in terms of sacks and pressure rate this season (San Francisco and Dallas). Sean McVay was able to turn Stafford’s production around halfway through last season, and I’m not yet ruling out that it could happen again.

12. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)

Last week: 13

13. Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

Last week: 17

Geno for MVP? Smith leads the league in passer rating and ranks fifth in expected points added per dropback; Russell Wilson ranks 22nd in both stats. The Seahawks may be the biggest breakup winner ever.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

Last week: 12

Aggregate power rankings:

Obviously the Jaguars need to be moved down after giving Houston its first win of the season. But let’s try not to overreact.

Despite back-to-back disappointing losses, Jacksonville still ranks fifth in point differential and seventh in weighted DVOA. The main culprit of the mounting Ls is quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has recently played some of the worst ball of his young NFL career despite playing incredibly just last month.

I’m not worried about Lawrence because he mostly just needs to calm down. He plays hero ball just a bit too much at times, but I also get why he does it.

He’s good at football, folks.

On a list of team concerns, I’d put rushing and redzone offense ahead of Lawrence’s aggressiveness. And the defense played great on Sunday save for maybe four plays. Jacksonville should still be competing for the playoffs in December.

15. New York Giants (4-1)

Last week: 26

Beating Aaron Rodgers with a hobbled Daniel Jones and without your top four wide receivers? Okay, Brian Daboll. You have my attention.

16. Cleveland Browns (2-3)

Last week: 18

17. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Last week: 14

18. Denver Broncos (2-3)

Last week: 15

19. Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Last week: 16

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)

21. New England Patriots (2-3)

22. Tennessee Titans (3-2)

23. New Orleans Saints (2-3)

24. Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

25. Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)

26. Detroit Lions (1-4)

Last week: 19

27. New York Jets (3-2)

Last week: 28

28. Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)

Last week: 29

29. Washington Commanders (1-4)

Last week: 27

Ron knows.

30. Chicago Bears (2-3)

31. Carolina Panthers (1-4)

I’m interested to see how much heart the Panthers play with this week after head coach Matt Rhule was fired. An upset win over the defending-champion Rams, in Los Angeles, would simply be hilarious. Albeit they still don’t have a quarterback.

32. Houston Texans (1-3-1)