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Week 7 NFL power rankings

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NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

NFL power rankings following Week 6 of the 2022 season -- where I tell you when it is and isn’t okay to fall under the spell of recency bias.

The prompt: if a playoff game at a neutral site were played tomorrow, who would win?

1. Buffalo Bills (5-1)

Last week: 2

The Bills officially earned the top spot with a 24-20 win in Arrowhead. Turns out adding Von Miller and subtracting Tyreek Hill from the Bills-Chiefs rivalry has its effects.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)

Last week: 1

3. Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

Last week: 5

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)

5. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Last week: 3

6. San Francisco 49ers (3-3)

7. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)

8. Miami Dolphins (3-3)

9. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)

I’m keeping the Vikings at no. 9 for now but they are on fraud watch -- Minnesota is good but not 5-1 good. They should handle Arizona and Washington in the next two weeks, but then they’ll face the Bills, Cowboys, and Patriots in a tough mid-season stretch.

10. Green Bay Packers (3-3)

11. New York Giants (5-1)

Last week: 15

12. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

13. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)

Aggregate power rankings:

All four of Jacksonville’s loses this season have been within a score, and their two wins have been blowouts. The lack of roster talent may be too much for Trevor Lawrence and Jaguars coaches to constantly overcome in 2022, but even if they’re mostly beating themselves right now, it’s encouraging that the current losses are coming down to just a couple high-leverage plays. They’ll start swinging in the Jaguars’ direction eventually as experience and talent continue to be added to the team.

15. New England Patriots

Last week: 21

16. Los Angeles Rams (3-3)

Last week: 11

17. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

18. Denver Broncos (2-4)

19. Atlanta Falcons (3-3)

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)

21. Cleveland Browns (2-4)

Last week: 16

22. Tennessee Titans (3-2)

23. New Orleans Saints (2-4)

24. New York Jets (4-2)

Last week: 27

25. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

26. Detroit Lions (1-4)

27. Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)

Last week: 28

28. Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Last week: 24

We’re about to see just how valuable an Pro Bowl-caliber receiver is to a team’s offense when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension in Week 7. But these Cardinals look beyond hope, and it doesn’t help that Hollywood Brown just suffered a potential season-ending injury.

It’ll be fascinating to see who among Kyler Murray/Kliff Kingsbury/Steve Keim, all of whom received contract extensions this past summer, gets dismissed from the team first -- and how long it takes.

29. Washington Commanders (2-4)

30. Chicago Bears (2-4)

31. Carolina Panthers (1-5)

32. Houston Texans (1-3-1)