Last week: 1-1
Jaguars over 10.5 first half points (-105)
The Jaguars are 13th in first half points per game (11.7) while the Giants rank 29th (6.7). We can almost expect to see New York attempt a second-half comeback on Sunday, so Jacksonville -2.5 first half spread is enticing. But I like betting on the Jags to score rather than lead after 30 minutes pretty much entirely because of Saquon.
Travis Etienne over 51.5 rushing yards (-120)
ETN feels like the only Jaguars offensive player with consistent production. He's getting better every week, and the Giants are allowing the most yards per rush in the league.
Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks just 30th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and 32nd in stuffed run rate, but coincidentally, New York’s defensive line also ranks 30th in adjusted line yards and 32nd in stuffed run rate.
The Giants can scheme up some pressures, but despite playing with a stacked box often, its run defense is exploitable. Jacksonville’s best playmaker should be able to take advantage.
Christian Kirk over 51.5 receiving yards (-125)
PFF’s top buy-low candidate per Josh Hermseyer’s air yards model. After catching six balls in each of the first three games of the season, Kirk has seven total receptions and under 100 total receiving yards through the past three games. I’m expecting a bounce back performance sooner than later.
Wan’Dale Robinson over 3.5 receptions (+130)
The rookie led New York in receiving with a 3-37-1 stat line last week despite playing just 15 offensive snaps (23%). He missed the past several weeks due to a knee injury suffered in the season opener, but Robinson did not appear on the Giants injury report this week (and fellow wideouts Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney have been ruled out).