In their two wins this season, the Jaguars have a +5 turnover differential and +50 point differential. In their five loses, all of which have been by one score, Jacksonville has a -6 turnover differential and -34 point differential. They rank 28th in fourth quarter point differential on the season (-25).
The final 15 minutes have ultimately decided each loss, but early turnovers don’t help.
Forced fumble: Travis Etienne https://t.co/gsceTRZKw7— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) October 23, 2022
This was the biggest play of the game in terms of expected points added (per rbsdm.com).
Travis Etienne had a great performance otherwise, as he led the team with 14 rushes for 114 yards plus a touchdown and two-point conversion. Only Lamar Jackson (7.7) and Khalil Herbert (6.4) have a higher yards-per-carry mark than Etienne (6.1) this season.
The second-year back is balling, but the offense requires a viable deep threat to become fully armed and operational.
Lawrence 1/7 on passes 20+ yards downfield pic.twitter.com/UmmfzXN6Nc— Gus Logue (@gus_logue) October 24, 2022
As for the defense... the issue isn’t fixable with better turnover luck and an upgrade to one position. Jacksonville has allowed a 10-play fourth-quarter possession in every loss this year, with the opposing team reaching the end zone on four of those five such drives.
In Week 4, the Eagles leaned on inside zone with a quarterback option.
Here's the Eagles' fifth drive of the game in its entirety. 8 runs (mostly zone read), 1 pass (screen).— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 2, 2022
The player to watch is LG Landon Dickerson.
(and Kelce, b/c always Kelce) pic.twitter.com/CO26feheOm
In Week 6, Indianapolis spammed routes over the middle of the field.
#Jaguars were burned by dagger and crosser routes often against the Colts on Sunday. I counted 10 of that variety (could be more) going through the film:— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) October 18, 2022
A heavy dose of Michael Pittman, who caught 13 total passes for 134 yards. pic.twitter.com/pkxEQIk2HD
And last week, the Giants leaned on power runs with an extra offensive lineman.
The Giants ran the same 'Power' concept on 8 STRAIGHT PLAYS on their 4th qtr FG drive (Saquon 6x for 44 off right end)@danorlovsky7 & I were both marveling at the same tape when we connected today. So he explained how & why this "rare" repetition worked https://t.co/tbzJiJOd3V— Pat Leonard (@PLeonardNYDN) October 24, 2022
Trent Baalke’s defense is the third-most expensive in the league and starts four top-33 draft picks, but clearly big checks alone don’t win games. Opposing offenses have found a way to succeed in various ways.
The lack of responding adjustments by Jacksonville’s defensive staff is startling. After just seven games, the seat under first-time defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell may be heating up.