Jaguars vs Giants: Play of the game

Last week’s Jaguars-Giants game was pretty much a reflection of their respective seasons. Jacksonville squandered yet another late lead as New York executed yet another come-from-behind victory.

In their two wins this season, the Jaguars have a +5 turnover differential and +50 point differential. In their five loses, all of which have been by one score, Jacksonville has a -6 turnover differential and -34 point differential. They rank 28th in fourth quarter point differential on the season (-25).

The final 15 minutes have ultimately decided each loss, but early turnovers don’t help.

This was the biggest play of the game in terms of expected points added (per rbsdm.com).

Travis Etienne had a great performance otherwise, as he led the team with 14 rushes for 114 yards plus a touchdown and two-point conversion. Only Lamar Jackson (7.7) and Khalil Herbert (6.4) have a higher yards-per-carry mark than Etienne (6.1) this season.

The second-year back is balling, but the offense requires a viable deep threat to become fully armed and operational.

As for the defense... the issue isn’t fixable with better turnover luck and an upgrade to one position. Jacksonville has allowed a 10-play fourth-quarter possession in every loss this year, with the opposing team reaching the end zone on four of those five such drives.

In Week 4, the Eagles leaned on inside zone with a quarterback option.

In Week 6, Indianapolis spammed routes over the middle of the field.

And last week, the Giants leaned on power runs with an extra offensive lineman.

Trent Baalke’s defense is the third-most expensive in the league and starts four top-33 draft picks, but clearly big checks alone don’t win games. Opposing offenses have found a way to succeed in various ways.

The lack of responding adjustments by Jacksonville’s defensive staff is startling. After just seven games, the seat under first-time defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell may be heating up.