The Jaguars recently traded James Robinson to the Jets for a conditional 6th round pick, and boy howdy are some fans pissed about it. Before deciding one way or the other I decided to see what the statistics might say about the trade by looking at the careers to date of every RB drafted in the 5th or 6th rounds of the NFL draft in since the 2011 CBA changed the rookie wage scale.
| Name |
Round drafted |
Pick |
Career attempts |
Career rushing yards |
Career TDs |
Career YPC |
Career TD/Att |
| Alfred Morris |
6 |
173 |
1429 |
6173 |
35 |
4.3 |
0.0245 |
| Latavius Murray |
6 |
181 |
1344 |
5639 |
51 |
4.2 |
0.0379 |
| Jordan Howard |
5 |
150 |
1018 |
4361 |
37 |
4.3 |
0.0363 |
| Aaron Jones |
5 |
182 |
900 |
4595 |
42 |
5.1 |
0.0467 |
| Alfred Blue |
6 |
181 |
673 |
2407 |
8 |
3.6 |
0.0119 |
| Jay Ajayi |
5 |
149 |
572 |
2546 |
13 |
4.5 |
0.0227 |
| Dion Lewis |
5 |
149 |
567 |
2425 |
13 |
4.3 |
0.0229 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers |
5 |
145 |
545 |
2067 |
9 |
3.8 |
0.0165 |
| Rex Burkhead |
6 |
190 |
484 |
1900 |
17 |
3.9 |
0.0351 |
| Alex Collins |
5 |
171 |
483 |
1997 |
18 |
4.1 |
0.0373 |
| Andre Ellington |
6 |
187 |
418 |
1752 |
10 |
4.2 |
0.0239 |
| Zac Stacy |
5 |
160 |
357 |
1355 |
9 |
3.8 |
0.0252 |
| Spencer Ware |
6 |
194 |
357 |
1631 |
11 |
4.6 |
0.0308 |
| DeAndre Washington |
5 |
143 |
313 |
1213 |
7 |
3.9 |
0.0224 |
| Theo Riddick |
6 |
199 |
294 |
1037 |
5 |
3.5 |
0.0170 |
| Mike Gillislee |
5 |
164 |
274 |
1291 |
16 |
4.7 |
0.0584 |
| Chris Thompson |
5 |
154 |
257 |
1214 |
5 |
4.7 |
0.0195 |
| Boston Scott |
6 |
201 |
244 |
1037 |
14 |
4.3 |
0.0574 |
| Wendell Smallwood |
5 |
153 |
238 |
956 |
5 |
4.0 |
0.0210 |
| Vick Ballard |
5 |
170 |
224 |
877 |
2 |
3.9 |
0.0089 |
| Elijah Mitchell |
6 |
194 |
213 |
1004 |
5 |
4.7 |
0.0235 |
| Brian Hill |
5 |
156 |
209 |
982 |
3 |
4.7 |
0.0144 |
| Jordan Wilkins |
5 |
169 |
195 |
951 |
4 |
4.9 |
0.0205 |
| Joseph Randle |
5 |
151 |
181 |
822 |
9 |
4.5 |
0.0497 |
| Elijah McGuire |
6 |
188 |
180 |
591 |
4 |
3.3 |
0.0222 |
| Ty Johnson |
6 |
186 |
179 |
768 |
3 |
4.3 |
0.0168 |
| Khalil Herbert |
6 |
217 |
178 |
897 |
5 |
5.0 |
0.0281 |
| Paul Perkins |
5 |
149 |
165 |
575 |
0 |
3.5 |
0.0000 |
| Stepfan Taylor |
5 |
140 |
120 |
393 |
1 |
3.3 |
0.0083 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne |
5 |
174 |
118 |
491 |
5 |
4.2 |
0.0424 |
| Dan Herron |
6 |
191 |
112 |
468 |
1 |
4.2 |
0.0089 |
| Kenjon Barner |
6 |
182 |
104 |
416 |
3 |
4.0 |
0.0288 |
| Jonathan Williams |
5 |
156 |
103 |
467 |
3 |
4.5 |
0.0291 |
| Karlos Williams |
5 |
155 |
93 |
517 |
7 |
5.6 |
0.0753 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
5 |
150 |
91 |
388 |
7 |
4.3 |
0.0769 |
| Jeremy McNichols |
5 |
162 |
90 |
364 |
1 |
4.0 |
0.0111 |
| Mike James |
6 |
189 |
83 |
351 |
0 |
4.2 |
0.0000 |
| Evan Royster |
6 |
177 |
81 |
416 |
2 |
5.1 |
0.0247 |
| Tyler Allgeier |
5 |
151 |
70 |
285 |
1 |
4.1 |
0.0143 |
| Travis Homer |
6 |
204 |
68 |
397 |
1 |
5.8 |
0.0147 |
| Darwin Thompson |
6 |
214 |
64 |
225 |
2 |
3.5 |
0.0313 |
| David Cobb |
5 |
138 |
52 |
146 |
1 |
2.8 |
0.0192 |
| Trenton Cannon |
6 |
204 |
51 |
150 |
1 |
2.9 |
0.0196 |
| Ryquell Armstead |
5 |
140 |
50 |
188 |
0 |
3.8 |
0.0000 |
| Qadree Ollison |
5 |
152 |
44 |
158 |
5 |
3.6 |
0.1136 |
| Trayveon Williams |
6 |
182 |
41 |
208 |
0 |
5.1 |
0.0000 |
| Larry Rountree |
6 |
198 |
36 |
87 |
1 |
2.4 |
0.0278 |
| John Kelly |
6 |
176 |
32 |
96 |
0 |
3.0 |
0.0000 |
| Cyrus Gray |
6 |
182 |
24 |
99 |
1 |
4.1 |
0.0417 |
| Johnny White |
5 |
133 |
20 |
72 |
0 |
3.6 |
0.0000 |
| Jason Huntley |
5 |
172 |
18 |
70 |
0 |
3.9 |
0.0000 |
| Josh Robinson |
6 |
205 |
17 |
39 |
0 |
2.3 |
0.0000 |
| Chris Evans |
6 |
202 |
17 |
77 |
0 |
4.5 |
0.0000 |
| Trestan Ebner |
6 |
203 |
16 |
51 |
0 |
3.2 |
0.0000 |
| Marion Grice |
6 |
201 |
15 |
41 |
1 |
2.7 |
0.0667 |
| Keaontay Ingram |
6 |
201 |
12 |
21 |
1 |
1.8 |
0.0833 |
| De'Angelo Henderson |
6 |
203 |
9 |
32 |
0 |
3.6 |
0.0000 |
| Dexter Williams |
6 |
194 |
7 |
19 |
0 |
2.7 |
0.0000 |
| T.J. Logan |
5 |
179 |
5 |
12 |
0 |
2.4 |
0.0000 |
| Gary Brightwell |
6 |
196 |
5 |
23 |
1 |
4.6 |
0.2000 |
| Jordan Scarlett |
5 |
154 |
4 |
9 |
0 |
2.3 |
0.0000 |
| Terrance Ganaway |
6 |
202 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Lache Seastrunk |
6 |
186 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Tyler Gaffney |
6 |
204 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Keenan Reynolds |
6 |
182 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Kelvin Taylor |
6 |
211 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Snoop Conner |
5 |
154 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Jerome Ford |
5 |
156 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Ty Chandler |
5 |
169 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| Tyler Badie |
6 |
196 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0000 |
| TOTAL |
|
|
14163 |
59839 |
406 |
4.2 |
0.0287 |
| AVERAGE |
6 |
176 |
202 |
855 |
6 |
4.2 |
0.0287 |
| James Robinson (2022 rate projected 17 games) |
|
|
197 |
826 |
7 |
4.2 |
0.0370 |
As it turns out the average of the 70 players drafted in that time span equate to pick 176 of the 6th round rushing 202 times for 855 yards and 6 TDs, which is almost exactly James Robinson's 7 game pace continued for a 17 game season. It might not feel like a great return, but historically even 6th round RBs have a habit of matching Robinson's output when given the workload.
James Robinson should have no trouble turning his trade into a 5th round pick and giving the Jaguars another cost reduced RB to pair with the electric Etienne. Feel free to vent down in the ments.
FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.
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