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Jaguars vs Cowboys: Best bets

Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Here are this week’s best bets -- odds via DraftKings Sportsbook -- as the 5-8 Jacksonville Jaguars host the 10-3 Dallas Cowboys.

Last week: 1-1

Season: 19-19

Cowboys team total over 26.5 (-105)

The Jaguars cannot stop good pass defenses. Each of their wins this season have come against injured/bad receiving corps.

Tyson Campbell is very good, but the rest of Jacksonville’s secondary is pretty embarrassing, especially at outside cornerback across Campbell.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the league. I fully expect him to pick apart Jacksonville’s defense, especially with James Washington and T.Y. Hilton adding depth to the receiver room in Dallas.

The Cowboys have also been one of the fastest-paced offenses for the past couple years.

Cowboys -4 (-110)

I think Dallas will score a lot, but the Cowboys also boast the best defense in the league outside of San Francisco. It’ll be Trevor Lawrence’s toughest test since he threw for just 133 yards against Denver in Week 8.

More than anything else, though, my favorite thing to do when betting on the NFL is fading recency bias. The Cowboys eked by the Texans last week as Prescott threw two interceptions, and the Jaguars walloped the Titans as Ryan Tannehill committed two turnovers of his own.

I think Dallas is much better than last week’s score indicated, and the inverse for Jacksonville.

Dalton Schultz over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)

Rookie tight end Jake Ferguson (concussion) has been ruled out of Sunday’s contest. That leaves Dalton Schultz -- whose 93% snap rate and 10 targets last week were his most since the season opener -- as the main beneficiary of Jacksonville’s porous defense.

The Jaguars ranks dead last in DVOA allowed against tight ends this season, and fourth-worst in yards allowed to the position.

Travis Etienne longest rush over 15.5 yards (-120)

See this week’s Players to Watch (the Cowboys defense is elite but allows explosive rushes).

Marvin Jones under 26.5 receiving yards (-115)

The veteran receiver is being phased out of Jacksonville’s offense. Marvin Jones played a season-low 49% of snaps last week and has no more than 22 yards in each of the past three games.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.