Jags Offseason 2023

What’s up guys. As much as I’m loving the meaningful games in December 2022 I always find myself addicted to looking ahead to FA and the draft as well. I think a lot of us that looked at this had a strong idea of how the next offseason would likely begin. However recent weeks have significantly shifted the landscape of the upcoming offseason. I’m curious what some of your thoughts are on where we go next. We all know that we enter the offseason over the cap but the recent Calvin Ridley trade had brought that over the cap number to 16 plus million. The Jags will likely be making some cuts and some unpleasant FA decisions to begin the offseason.

Likely Cap Cuts

Shaq Griffin- saves 13.5 million and just hasn’t looked the part of a 17 million dollar CB. Tyson is our CB1 and as much as I thought we go CB early this draft, seeing Williams outside as CB2 has made me think we may not. If the Jags keep Williams outside it makes their CB needs a slot man and some depth. I don’t see us drafting a slot CB in rd 1-2 with our other needs of Williams is our second outside man.

RRH- despite needing more and not less along the DL this move saves us 7.8 million which could be used more efficiently elsewhere. These two moves are the most likely big changes coming. The Jags should spend an early rd pick on a DL unless they’re going 4-3 (even so I think an early rd pick is needed for more pressure). Staying 3-4 you need a replacement for RRH badly in draft or FA. In a 4-3 change (likely benefits both Allen/Walker) you have 4 starters but could use an upgrade on the interior.

Jamal Agnew- love the guy but when you’re 16 million over the cap, there just isn’t room for a 6 million dollar return man/gadget player. Cutting him saves 4 plus million and as much as I’d like him back on a cheaper deal, a team with space likely pays more.

These three cuts make around 25-26 million in space which puts us about ten under but you’ll also need space for the draft class. This leaves us under the cap but with next to no space. Next come contract extensions and renegotiations which make space by moving cap hits down the road when we have more room.

Rayshawn Jenkins- Coming into and at times during the season I had him as a cut to save 6 million but as the season has gone on I think he’ll be renegotiated and retained.

Other options to renegotiate for space: Cam Robinson, Kirk, Scherff, Oluokan. All 4 have cap hits around or above 20 million that could be spread out. Maybe you do so with one or two of them. We have a lot more room in subsequent years.

Possible Extend:

Josh Allen- idk the rule with the fifth year option but it’s possible extending him could manipulate his cap hit in addition to us keeping him long term.

Calvin Ridley- he has a reasonable 11 million dollar hit and is a FA after next season. After trading for him I imagine the plan is to extend its just a matter of when. With two years out of football I imagine they wait to see what they have before extending but if they’re really confident in Ridley they could use an extension to make immediate room.

FA Decisions

Jawaan Taylor- The Jags will likely need to decide if they want to pay one of Taylor or Evan Engram close to 15 million a year over multiple seasons. The other will have to be let go. I think the presence of Walker Little particularly if he finishes the year strong causes the Jags to opt to keep Engram over Taylor. Add in Engrams recent surge to my reasoning here.

Evan Engram- Engrams recent play is setting him up for a huge pay day. He’ll likely seek something around 13-15 million a season depending on how he finishes. Dan Arnold and Chris Manhertz are also FA. Along with the chemistry he’s developed with Lawrence, the shit show of trying to draft a starting TE, and the other available FA prices I think the Jags and Engram make a deal work. He’ll be their number one resign priority. His signing will come at the cost of Taylor and possibly even effect our ability to retain Duane Smoot and Arden Key

Smoot/Key- Both have done well as rotational rushers and should be retained. Both have played well enough to potentially price themselves out of our space. The Engram deal and competition from other teams likely factors here. However reasonable multi year deals with deferred cap hits can be made with both players and I think that’s what happens here. Maybe a 2-3 year deal for each with a raise for each.

Riley Patterson- he’s done his job. I think he’s kept for a reasonable kicker deal. If he wants too much they’ll look elsewhere.

Needs Entering FA/Draft

This scenario leaves us entering FA with needs in a few places. If Engram is retained, the most glaring holes seem to be along the DL interior and slot CB. Lesser needs include a power RB, depth along the OL particularly at LG and swing tackle. The Ridley trade erased a dire need for a WR1 and resigning Engram removes the dire need for a TE1. Much of the lineup will need depth but the only glaring hole is in replacing RRH and upgrading Herndon in the slot. All very doable. In the draft, we’re now dropping down the board with wins and that’s great but it’s also changing the available players and strategy. Depending on how the board falls I think Baalke leans DT if he can with Bresee being the guy if he falls. This is probably where value and need meet for us but the board will change a ton between now and then. Other options include Mayer, an X receiver like Quentin Johnson, a CB if they want to push Williams inside, a LG if they want to upgrade there or an edge rusher as we can always use more. What are all of your thoughts?

Go Jags!

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