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The Jacksonville Jaguars are at an important crossroads pretty early in the season. They dropped a winnable game last week on the back of Trevor Lawrence’s subpar start and the defense’s subpar finish.
If they don’t beat the Indianapolis Colts, they’ll likely go 0-4 through the first quarter(ish) of the 2022 NFL season thanks to game—and that could mean choosing between a player in Duval and a player, well, elsewhere.
I’m not gonna lie to you. Jaguars players will likely be predicted to score fewer fantasy points than other players around the league. Until Trevor Lawrence takes the step we all think he will with a competent coaching staff around him and an improved roster, this could be an underwhelming unit. But depending on the matchup, they could do better than what national analysts are predicting.
(And dammit, mine would have been right last week if Travis Etienne had caught the [REDACTED] ball.)
For the sake of simplicity, I’ve used ESPN’s fantasy football predictions going into Week 1 and I’m also factoring in a 1.0 PPR.
Let’s get to it...
QB Trevor Lawrence: Over 17 points
ESPN is going with Trevor Lawrence totaling 17 points for a second straight week. Factor in that he would have had that if Travis Etienne could catch the ball near the goal line and/or he wasn’t throwing punts on the final play turned into an interception that brought him two points lower than expected. I think this is a bounce back game for QB1 in part because head coach Doug Pederson is a quick learner and is going to give James Robinson far more of Travis Etienne’s early-down, early-game reps. Speaking of...
RB Travis Etienne: Under 10 points
Depending on how the game goes (and Travis Etienne’s penchant for getting a 30-yard run out of nowhere) I could end up being wrong here. But I just have to believe that the Jaguars will run James Robinson into the dirt. He deserves it and, frankly, the offense goes through him until it goes through Trevor Lawrence. That means fewer opportunities for Travis Etienne and more for...
RB James Robinson: Over 11 points
Travis Etienne’s loss is James Robinson’s gain, and the former UDFA is making up for lost time. ESPN is predicting just 15 touches for 70 total yards and a better-than-average chance at a touchdown. The Jaguars tried to force-feed Travis Etienne reps last weekend and James Robinson still exceeded that. How well is he going to perform when he’s the clear RB1 in the minds of coaches and staff?
WR Christian Kirk: Over 12 points
This is the one that wasn’t even close from last week’s predictions. I thought Christian Kirk needed more time with Trevor Lawrence to get into a rhythm, but instead he led the team in targets (12), receptions (6), and yards (117). Volume is king and Christian Kirk is its prince.
TE Evan Engram: Under 7 points
Yes, Evan Engram caught all four of his targets last week. But these are very short passes, with his long being 11 yards in Week 1. He’s something of a safety valve for Trevor Lawrence, but he’s sharing that role with Christian Kirk on some plays, and who would you rather get the ball to if you were the quarterback? Thought so.