Jaguars predicted get at least 6 wins after 100,000 season-long simulations

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be much better than they were last year and improve upon their win total. That’s if The Athletic’s computers can be trusted.

The Athletic ran an NFL betting model using various metrics to create projections for each team. They then used these projections for each game of the season to get a projected spread and converted it into a projected winning percentage. After repeating this process 100,000 times, they were able to find an expected win total for each team.

For the Jaguars, that number was 6.2 wins this season. And even with an improved win-loss record, Greg Auman believes the early-season slate of games is going to be very important.

“Jacksonville will take a step forward in head coach Doug Pederson’s first season, especially on offense, but I don’t know that the Jaguars win more than six games. That’s doubling last year’s total, and they have only seven games that are truly at home, and they have to play the AFC West. That lines up to five or six wins, and we’ll take the under here. If they don’t win the opener at Washington, they could open 0-4 really easily.”

The Jaguars’ season will be a success if they’re still alive in the playoff hunt in November. I mean, really alive. I’m not talking about the scenarios where if X team loses to Y team and Z team ties another team on the third Tuesday of December when it’s raining. I’m talking about “if they keep winning they’re in” kind of alive. And while a 6-11 final record is short of that, it would still be considered a positive step in the right direction.

See projections from The Athletic on all 32 NFL teams here.