Here are this week’s best bets -- odds via DraftKings Sportsbook -- as the Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) host the Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) in the first round of the 2022-23 NFL playoffs.
Week before: 1-1
Jaguars +2.5 (-110)
I was on the fence about this game in the beginning of the week, but Mike Williams (back) being ruled out tipped me over. In addition to losing its leading receiver, Los Angeles will be without left tackle Rashawn Slater (biceps) and with a less-than-100% Joey Bosa (groin). Both 2021 Pro Bowlers were originally hurt against the Jaguars in Week 3.
Jacksonville’s roster is less talented but more healthy. The Jaguars also have a slight rest advantage plus home field advantage. And it certainly felt like they had a coaching advantage in the first matchup between these two teams.
I also have more faith in Jacksonville’s run game than L.A. to produce offense and control the clock. Both of these teams can overcome deficits thanks to their respective quarterbacks, but the Jaguars’ advantage in the trenches should keep them in or ahead of this game.
Travis Etienne over 76.5 rushing yards (-130)
Etienne managed just 17 rushing yards last week against a top-ranked Titans run defense. This week, he’ll face the same team that allowed 151 yards on the ground to Jacksonville back in September. The Chargers rank 23rd in run stop win rate, 29th in adjusted line yards, and dead last in yards per carry allowed on the season. (Tennessee ranks first in each of those categories.)
The second-year tailback should have way more run to room this week.
From the Athletic Football Show— Gus Logue (@gus_logue) January 13, 2023
"No team in the NFL, by Next Gen Stats Info, has allowed more runs on outside runs this season over expectation than the Chargers- the Jags were third in rushing yards over expectation on those plays"
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.