Christian Kirk over 51.5 receiving yards (-130)
Better odds: over 52.5 rushing + rec. yards (-115), over 60 rec. yards (+120)
It’d surprise me if Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target tonight isn’t Christian Kirk. As I mentioned in our staff roundtable, Saints nickel corner Alontae Taylor has allowed 32 catches this year; the rest of the teams’ cornerbacks have combined to allow 33 catches.
Calvin Ridley will have tougher matchups against Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo in press man coverage on the perimeter. In Jacksonville’s two matchups against man-heavy defenses this season (Kansas City in Week 2 and Atlanta in Week 4), Kirk drew 26 total targets.
Evan Engram over 4.5 catches (-135)
Evan Engram over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
Engram’s matchup is tough on paper -- the Saints have allowed just 171 yards to tight ends on the season, third-fewest in the league -- but the Jaguars figure to feature its best YAC player early and often with a less-than-100% quarterback.
Engram has caught at least four balls in each of his past nine games and 14 of his last 15 (going back to last season, including playoffs). He also has seven receptions in three of his past four outings.
Travis Etienne over 16.5 rush attempts (-110)
Jacksonville’s RB1 leads the league in rush attempts and total touches, and Etienne’s 56 snaps per game trails only Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams at the position. Look for the Jaguars to continue to rely on Etienne tonight, especially with his former Clemson teammate and fellow Jaguars 2021 first-rounder on the mend.
I also like Etienne to score a touchdown at +105 odds. He has four in the past two weeks, including a 1-yard plunge last Sunday. Meanwhile, Tank Bigsy has only seen eight carries on the opponent’s side of the field this season, and two red zone carries since Week 2.
Chris Olave over 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
Last year’s 11th overall pick has earned 10-plus targets and 110-plus air yards in Derek Carr’s four healthy games this season (subtracting Weeks 4-5).
After recording over 1,000 yards as a rookie, Olave has gotten off to an underwhelming start this year -- but New Orleans’ leading receiver should be able to get back on track this week as the biggest beneficiary of Tyson Campbell’s absence.
Brandon McManus over 1.5 field goals made (-125)
McManus is currently tied for the league field goals of 40-49 yards (6). The first-year Jaguar has connected on 12 of 14 kicks this season (one was blocked and one was missed in Week 3). Other than the Texans game, he’s been lights out.
My hot take on the JaguarReport game preview podcast was that McManus will hit five field goals tonight. I’m expecting a game plan centered around ball control from Jacksonville’s coaches.
Full Week 7 bet slip:
- Christian Kirk over 51.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Evan Engram over 4.5 catches (-135)
- Evan Engram over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Travis Etienne over 16.5 rush attempts (-110)
- Chris Olave over 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Brandon McManus over 1.5 field goals made (-125)
Last week: 0-3
Full season: 6-15
What are your favorite player props this week, Jaguars fans? Let us know in the comments!