Calvin Ridley over 4.5 receptions (-110)
Christian Kirk over 53.5 receiving yards (-130)
Also available: over 54.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
The 49ers have allowed the second-most catches per game (16.1) and seventh-most yards per game (174.6) to wide receivers this season. In their three-game losing skid, San Francisco ceded over 200 yards per game to opposing wideouts, as Amari Cooper (108 yards), Jordan Addison (123 yards), and Ja’Marr Chase (100 yards) took turns torching the Niners secondary.
I’m confident Calvin Ridley will get his based on San Francisco’s defensive scheme, which specializes in Cover 3. Short, quick passes to the sideline (see: Ridley’s preseason usage) should be available most of the afternoon.
As for Christian Kirk, he’ll see a lot of 49ers nickel cornerback Isaiah Oliver, who ranks bottom-five in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed in slot coverage this season, per PFF. Fred Warner can shut down the middle of the hand almost single-handedly, but look for Kirk to do most of his work closer to the sideline or farther down the field. I also like him to beat his longest reception prop (over 20.5 yards at -110 odds).
Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions (+124)
I keep thinking back to the Saints game when Alvin Kamara caught 12 balls for 91 yards. This week could look similar -- Christian McCaffrey, who paces the NFL in rushing yards and total touchdowns this season, also happens to be the best receiving back in the league. He’s averaging 4.4 receptions per game across his 19 games as a Niner.
Though opposing running backs have scored 0 touchdowns through the air this season (and just 2 on the ground), the Jaguars have allowed the most receptions to the position (60).
Devin Lloyd should be asked to handle George Kittle in coverage more than Foye Oluokun, so like the Saints game, it’ll mainly be up to Oluokun to slow down the opposing running back.
Christian McCaffrey under 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
McCaffrey hasn’t rushed for over 65 yards since Week 4, which is also the last time an opposing back to reached 65 yards against Jacksonville. CMC has the talent to make this bet look foolish, but the Jaguars have allowed a league-low 31.4% rushing success rate on the ground this season despite DaVon Hamilton playing just 14 snaps to date.
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (+105)
The 49ers quarterback ranks sixth in turnover-worthy plays (14) and the rate of such plays (5.1%), per PFF. Brock Purdy has thrown five interceptions in just the past three games. Feels like there’s a good chance the Jaguars defense will continue to lead the league in turnovers after this week.
Full Week 10 bet slip:
- Calvin Ridley over 4.5 receptions (-110)
- Christian Kirk over 53.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions (+124)
- Christian McCaffrey under 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (+105)
Week 8: 4-1
Full season: 13-19
What are your favorite player props this week, Jaguars fans? Let us know in the comments!