FanPost

BBSS: 2024 NFL Draft RB Watchlist; Post Rivalry Week

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With the college football season nearing its end, and the terrible early returns on rookie Tank Bigsby, in this article I'll be looking at players with good statistical production who might be available in the upcoming draft.

Running back, Again?

It is no surprise to Jags fans that Tank Bigsby has had struggles holding on to the ball, but when looking at the first year of running back production in the NFL for backs drafted in the first three rounds of the last five drafts we see that Tank has had one of the worst rookie years in recent history.

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Not only does he have the highest rate of ball insecurity (not including his two interceptions on only 4 targets), but he has a below average rushing success rate when compared to other first year NFL backs. We could (and likely should) be on the lookout for added competition for his RB3 position in the upcoming draft.

Methodology

Using cfbfastR's play by play data from 2018 to 2023 to highlight efficient career producers in terms of third and short success rate, redzone TD rate, and EPA per rush, and yards per rush.

On Radar

This category is for the players who performed above average for all four of the previously mentioned metrics over the course of their careers, and are within the top 256 projected picks on NFLMockDraftDatabase.com.

Player Name Projected Draft Position
Trey Benson 65
Blake Corum 70
Raheim Sanders 78
Braelon Allen 89
Will Shipley 97
Devin Neal 160

Potential Risers

Next I wanted to highlight the players who met all 4 metrics and were listed outside the top 256 projected picks.

Player Name Projected Draft Position
Isaiah Davis 377
Jalen White 447
Treshaun Ward 449
Kendall Milton 631
DeaMonte Trayanum 635
Dillon Johnson 700
Braydon Bennett 719
Lyn-J Dixon 897
La'Damian Webb 958

Sleepers

Next I decided to look at the players who had performed well in all 4 metrics over their careers and were not even currently mentioned in the top 1065 projected picks of the NFLMockDraftDatabase.com bigboard.

Player Name Projected Draft Position
Ja'Den McKenzie N/A
Julius Loughridge N/A
Marcus Fulcher N/A
Jordan Fuller N/A

Super Sleepers

Finally, I wanted a list of players who had produced above the averages for just third down and short success rate and redzone TD rate regardless of whether they were listed on the big board or not.

Player Name Projected Draft Position
Dylan Laube 307
Daijun Edwards 320
Roman Hemby 347
Marcus Carroll 437
Alton McCaskill IV 594
Trey Sanders 738
John Emery Jr. 741
Noah Cain 780
Dylan McDuffie 988

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