BBSS: Finding the Next Brock Purdy

How Brock Purdy went from NFL's 'Mr. Irrelevant' to leading the 49ers in  the playoffs -

The NFL is a copy-cat league and with the success of Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy this season, teams might be on the look out for late round gems at QB.

Using the consensus draft rankings over at and the situational passing stats from to get my draftable QB metric to see which QBs available late had college production that corelates to the NFL.

Name New Draft Score Consensus Draft Pick
Bryce Young 99 2
C.J. Stroud 99 3
Will Levis 60 6
Anthony Richardson 48 16
Tanner McKee 23 73
Hendon Hooker 66 74
Jaren Hall 60 91
Clayton Tune 48 198
Max Duggan 38 200
Jake Haener 53 206
Aidan O'Connell 38 233
Dorian Thompson-Robinson 48 259
Stetson Bennett 86 343
Sean Clifford 23 445
Malik Cunningham 68 451
Tanner Morgan 68 452

For comparison, Brock Purdy had a score of 56 close to the median of drafted players since 2014. Players like Stetson Bennett, Malik Cunningham, and Tanner Morgan could be the next late round draft steals at the QB position.

But What are the Odds?

The next question I had was what were the historical outcomes from drafting players like Brock Purdy in the first place, and to find that out I needed to know the range of QB draft scores to look at. Enter the histogram from all drafted QBs from 2014 to 2022!

The bucket of data that Brock Purdy falls under is the 54-67 draft score range, leaving us 13 examples of what we might get from such a pick. It turns out around 46% of players in this bucket have started 5 NFL games, with an average career QB rating of 91.2 among the 6 qualifying players.

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