One of the positions the Jaguars could be targeting early or often in the 2023 draft is pass rusher, so let's look at how the team can increase their odds of landing a good one using college production and athletic testing.
Defining "Hits"
The Jaguars need pass rush help, and they need it soon, so we will be looking at the players who produced a season with an above average number of sacks within their first two seasons.
Given the data from our previous look at pass rushers we are looking for ways to increase our odds of getting players who scored 9 or more sacks within their first two seasons in the league.
Draft Pick Base Rates
Before we can look to improve our odds at getting good players in a given draft class, we should look at what the expected odds are based on NFL decision makers draft history. We will be looking at the 5 year period of DL players drafted in the 2017-2021 drafts (according to data from Pro-Football-Reference.com) and how often these players hit a 9+ sack season in their first two seasons in the league.
|
Hit 9+ Sacks in 1st 2 yrs |
Num. of Players |
Base Rate % |
Picks 1-32 |
8 |
26 |
30.8 |
Picks 33-64 |
2 |
18 |
11.1 |
Picks 65-96 |
0 |
23 |
0.0 |
Picks 97-128 |
1 |
16 |
6.3 |
Picks 129-160 |
0 |
18 |
0.0 |
Picks 161-192 |
0 |
14 |
0.0 |
Picks 193-224 |
0 |
9 |
0.0 |
Picks 225-256 |
0 |
25 |
0.0 |
Picks 1-256 |
11 |
149 |
7.4 |
The average hit rate for an NFL drafted D-Lineman is a little over 7 percent, with the odds being much greater within the first two rounds of the draft.
Stats That Matter
Using the colligate sack metric and the colligate tackles for loss metrics mentioned in the previous article, as well as looking at tackles per game data and Relative Athletic Scores, stat baselines were developed which helped to highlight high performers in sack production in the 5 year period. The stats we are looking for are as follows:
|
CFB Sack Metric |
CFB TFL Metric |
Tackles/Game |
RAS |
Baselines |
28.5+ |
28.5+ |
4+ |
8+ |
With these baselines established, we can look at the base rate of hitting on a player who met all four stat baselines.
|
Hit 9+ Sacks in 1st 2 yrs |
Num. of Players |
Base Rate % |
Met Stats Baselines |
9 |
17 |
52.9 |
Using the given stat baselines provides a percent difference of 53% over what the expected hit rate of an average NFL first round draft pick!
2023 Draft Prospects
Now let's see how the upcoming draft class looks like through the lens of our metrics and their cutoffs. Players meeting and exceeding all four baselines are highlighted in grey.
Name |
CFB Sack Metric |
CFB TFL Metric |
Tackles/Game |
RAS |
Will Anderson Jr. |
44.56 |
42.36 |
6.73 |
N/A |
Tyree Wilson |
37.07 |
32.96 |
6.1 |
N/A |
Myles Murphy |
15.91 |
25.27 |
3.08 |
9.71 |
Lukas Van Ness |
21.59 |
20.27 |
2.77 |
9.39 |
Nolan Smith |
9.00 |
23.04 |
4 |
9.24 |
Calijah Kancey |
34.33 |
30.95 |
2.73 |
9.60 |
B.J. Ojulari |
32.33 |
27.90 |
5.18 |
5.47 |
Andre Carter II |
38.36 |
38.24 |
4.1 |
6.29 |
Will McDonald IV |
39.90 |
41.71 |
3 |
9.66 |
Felix Anudike-Uzomah |
21.11 |
17.92 |
4 |
8.72 |
Tuli Tuipulotu |
46.54 |
42.16 |
4 |
N/A |
Isaiah Foskey |
113.30 |
100.66 |
4 |
9.61 |
Keion White |
26.89 |
29.43 |
4.5 |
9.92 |
Derick Hall |
20.45 |
19.96 |
5 |
9.40 |
Tomi Adebawore |
18.30 |
28.31 |
3.17 |
9.71 |
Nick Herbig |
61.12 |
56.36 |
4.92 |
7.30 |
Zach Harrison |
10.67 |
12.56 |
2.75 |
8.73 |
Mike Morris |
28.00 |
23.00 |
1.92 |
4.75 |
Colby Wooden |
32.00 |
27.01 |
4.69 |
9.25 |
Karl Brooks |
36.66 |
32.47 |
3.85 |
5.81 |
Byron Young (TN) |
39.69 |
23.00 |
4.18 |
9.17 |
Isaiah McGuire |
48.79 |
40.90 |
4.23 |
9.54 |
Byron Young (Alabama) |
4.96 |
5.87 |
3.69 |
5.22 |
K.J. Henry |
9.96 |
18.20 |
3.64 |
8.40 |
Jose Ramirez |
40.11 |
43.73 |
5.5 |
8.12 |
Moro Ojomo |
14.69 |
12.79 |
2.75 |
9.14 |
Jalen Redmond |
29.59 |
22.44 |
2.38 |
7.85 |
Nick Hampton |
19.75 |
30.89 |
4.86 |
9.82 |
Brenton Cox Jr. |
25.27 |
19.82 |
4.38 |
7.59 |
Ali Gaye |
29.13 |
29.13 |
4.75 |
N/A |
Dylan Horton |
41.81 |
32.55 |
4.33 |
7.01 |
Habakkuk Baldonado |
16.72 |
18.73 |
3 |
8.14 |
Ochaun Mathis |
42.71 |
43.46 |
4 |
8.30 |
Yasir Abdullah |
45.65 |
36.95 |
4.85 |
9.73 |
Thomas Incoom |
37.63 |
33.28 |
4.67 |
8.53 |
DJ Johnson |
26.95 |
23.54 |
3.55 |
8.38 |
Lonnie Phelps |
43.10 |
37.44 |
4.38 |
8.71 |
YaYa Diaby |
25.77 |
27.78 |
3 |
9.86 |
Eku Leota |
17.63 |
43.56 |
3.4 |
N/A |
Tavius Robinson |
35.81 |
38.45 |
3.38 |
9.10 |
Derek Parish |
68.45 |
10.04 |
5 |
9.26 |
Mitchell Agude |
5.96 |
16.31 |
4.5 |
7.07 |
Robert Beal |
33.07 |
29.90 |
1.73 |
7.42 |
Viliami Fehoko |
46.02 |
34.24 |
5.75 |
5.31 |
Jordan Ferguson |
50.51 |
43.53 |
5.23 |
2.17 |
Durrell Johnson |
45.03 |
43.48 |
4.46 |
6.87 |
David Perales |
40.68 |
39.35 |
3.46 |
3.43 |
Jeremiah Martin |
30.26 |
26.14 |
3.15 |
6.58 |
Gabe Reid |
42.00 |
33.54 |
5.17 |
4.74 |
Adam Plant Jr. |
37.06 |
42.12 |
5.64 |
5.00 |
TL;DR:
There are six players in this draft class who project well as pass rushers at the NFL level, they are: Isaiah Foskey, Isaiah McGuire, Jose Ramirez, Yasir Abdullah, Thomas Incoom, and Lonnie Phelps. The base rates for players not meeting our baseline is only 1.5%, and those players should be avoided (no matter how athletic they may be).
Bonus Content:
Here are the numbers for the 2022 class with baseline players highlighted in grey:
Name |
CFB Sack Metric |
CFB TFL Metric |
Tackles/Game |
RAS |
Aidan Hutchinson |
27.19 |
25.70 |
5 |
9.89 |
Kayvon Thibodeaux |
36.69 |
31.98 |
5.43 |
9.64 |
Travon Walker |
23.51 |
23.12 |
2.47 |
9.99 |
Jermaine Johnson |
36.59 |
39.48 |
5.83 |
9.21 |
George Karlaftis |
36.39 |
33.85 |
3.42 |
9.24 |
David Ojabo |
50.56 |
49.46 |
2.5 |
9.43 |
Boye Mafe |
45.37 |
39.42 |
4.5 |
9.93 |
Arnold Ebiketie |
33.65 |
30.38 |
7 |
8.93 |
Josh Paschal |
23.13 |
21.99 |
4.42 |
9.72 |
Nik Bonitto |
24.20 |
29.87 |
3.25 |
9.40 |
Drake Jackson |
32.00 |
22.17 |
3.36 |
8.68 |
Cameron Thomas |
36.13 |
30.38 |
5.07 |
8.73 |
Sam Williams |
26.76 |
24.22 |
4.38 |
9.74 |
Myjai Sanders |
31.56 |
29.87 |
3.1 |
8.70 |
Kingsley Enagbare |
33.33 |
31.68 |
3.75 |
6.28 |
DeAngelo Malone |
63.32 |
50.29 |
6.71 |
9.06 |
Alex Wright |
29.39 |
27.60 |
3.75 |
N/A |
Dominique Robinson |
22.99 |
20.79 |
3 |
9.75 |
Isaiah Thomas |
38.37 |
38.23 |
3.17 |
9.13 |
Amare Barno |
25.82 |
26.37 |
3.91 |
9.21 |
Tyreke Smith |
10.80 |
10.58 |
2.6 |
7.15 |
Micheal Clemons |
26.41 |
29.54 |
3.2 |
8.24 |
Jeffrey Gunter |
44.49 |
20.13 |
4.83 |
9.78 |
Christopher Allen |
13.92 |
13.63 |
3.15 |
9.03 |
Esezi Otomewo |
13.52 |
11.68 |
2.31 |
6.63 |
Jeremiah Moon |
2.45 |
2.86 |
4.9 |
9.21 |
The Jaguars could potentially trade a later round pick for Cameron Thomas or DeAngelo Malone to help bolster our pass rush.
Updated Base Rates
Went ahead and crunched the numbers for draft classes 2010-2021, they are as follows:
|
Hit 9+ Sacks in 1st 2 yrs |
Num. of Players |
Base Rate % |
Met Stats Baselines |
17 |
41 |
41.5 |
Picks 1-32 |
17 |
66 |
25.8 |
Picks 33-64 |
5 |
38 |
13.2 |
Picks 65-96 |
4 |
48 |
8.3 |
Picks 97-128 |
1 |
32 |
3.1 |
Picks 129-160 |
0 |
46 |
0.0 |
Picks 161-192 |
0 |
35 |
0.0 |
Picks 193-224 |
0 |
32 |
0.0 |
Picks 225-256 |
0 |
52 |
0.0 |
Picks 1-256 |
27 |
349 |
7.7 |
Stats Baselines Not Met |
10 |
308 |
3.2 |
Players who don't meet even a single baseline number have about the same draft odds as a late 3rd/4th rounder, with roughly 60% of draft "hits" meeting or exceeding the baseline numbers pre-draft.
FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors of Big Cat Country or SB Nation.
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