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BBSS: 2023 Draft Pass Rushers and Stats that Matter *Updated*

Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame | NFL Draft Scouting Report
One of the positions the Jaguars could be targeting early or often in the 2023 draft is pass rusher, so let's look at how the team can increase their odds of landing a good one using college production and athletic testing.

Defining "Hits"

The Jaguars need pass rush help, and they need it soon, so we will be looking at the players who produced a season with an above average number of sacks within their first two seasons.

Given the data from our previous look at pass rushers we are looking for ways to increase our odds of getting players who scored 9 or more sacks within their first two seasons in the league.

Draft Pick Base Rates

Before we can look to improve our odds at getting good players in a given draft class, we should look at what the expected odds are based on NFL decision makers draft history. We will be looking at the 5 year period of DL players drafted in the 2017-2021 drafts (according to data from Pro-Football-Reference.com) and how often these players hit a 9+ sack season in their first two seasons in the league.

Hit 9+ Sacks in 1st 2 yrs Num. of Players Base Rate %
Picks 1-32 8 26 30.8
Picks 33-64 2 18 11.1
Picks 65-96 0 23 0.0
Picks 97-128 1 16 6.3
Picks 129-160 0 18 0.0
Picks 161-192 0 14 0.0
Picks 193-224 0 9 0.0
Picks 225-256 0 25 0.0
Picks 1-256 11 149 7.4


The average hit rate for an NFL drafted D-Lineman is a little over 7 percent, with the odds being much greater within the first two rounds of the draft.

Stats That Matter

Using the colligate sack metric and the colligate tackles for loss metrics mentioned in the previous article, as well as looking at tackles per game data and Relative Athletic Scores, stat baselines were developed which helped to highlight high performers in sack production in the 5 year period. The stats we are looking for are as follows:

CFB Sack Metric CFB TFL Metric Tackles/Game RAS
Baselines 28.5+ 28.5+ 4+ 8+

With these baselines established, we can look at the base rate of hitting on a player who met all four stat baselines.

Hit 9+ Sacks in 1st 2 yrs Num. of Players Base Rate %
Met Stats Baselines 9 17 52.9


Using the given stat baselines provides a percent difference of 53% over what the expected hit rate of an average NFL first round draft pick!

2023 Draft Prospects

Now let's see how the upcoming draft class looks like through the lens of our metrics and their cutoffs. Players meeting and exceeding all four baselines are highlighted in grey.

Name CFB Sack Metric CFB TFL Metric Tackles/Game RAS
Will Anderson Jr. 44.56 42.36 6.73 N/A
Tyree Wilson 37.07 32.96 6.1 N/A
Myles Murphy 15.91 25.27 3.08 9.71
Lukas Van Ness 21.59 20.27 2.77 9.39
Nolan Smith 9.00 23.04 4 9.24
Calijah Kancey 34.33 30.95 2.73 9.60
B.J. Ojulari 32.33 27.90 5.18 5.47
Andre Carter II 38.36 38.24 4.1 6.29
Will McDonald IV 39.90 41.71 3 9.66
Felix Anudike-Uzomah 21.11 17.92 4 8.72
Tuli Tuipulotu 46.54 42.16 4 N/A
Isaiah Foskey 113.30 100.66 4 9.61
Keion White 26.89 29.43 4.5 9.92
Derick Hall 20.45 19.96 5 9.40
Tomi Adebawore 18.30 28.31 3.17 9.71
Nick Herbig 61.12 56.36 4.92 7.30
Zach Harrison 10.67 12.56 2.75 8.73
Mike Morris 28.00 23.00 1.92 4.75
Colby Wooden 32.00 27.01 4.69 9.25
Karl Brooks 36.66 32.47 3.85 5.81
Byron Young (TN) 39.69 23.00 4.18 9.17
Isaiah McGuire 48.79 40.90 4.23 9.54
Byron Young (Alabama) 4.96 5.87 3.69 5.22
K.J. Henry 9.96 18.20 3.64 8.40
Jose Ramirez 40.11 43.73 5.5 8.12
Moro Ojomo 14.69 12.79 2.75 9.14
Jalen Redmond 29.59 22.44 2.38 7.85
Nick Hampton 19.75 30.89 4.86 9.82
Brenton Cox Jr. 25.27 19.82 4.38 7.59
Ali Gaye 29.13 29.13 4.75 N/A
Dylan Horton 41.81 32.55 4.33 7.01
Habakkuk Baldonado 16.72 18.73 3 8.14
Ochaun Mathis 42.71 43.46 4 8.30
Yasir Abdullah 45.65 36.95 4.85 9.73
Thomas Incoom 37.63 33.28 4.67 8.53
DJ Johnson 26.95 23.54 3.55 8.38
Lonnie Phelps 43.10 37.44 4.38 8.71
YaYa Diaby 25.77 27.78 3 9.86
Eku Leota 17.63 43.56 3.4 N/A
Tavius Robinson 35.81 38.45 3.38 9.10
Derek Parish 68.45 10.04 5 9.26
Mitchell Agude 5.96 16.31 4.5 7.07
Robert Beal 33.07 29.90 1.73 7.42
Viliami Fehoko 46.02 34.24 5.75 5.31
Jordan Ferguson 50.51 43.53 5.23 2.17
Durrell Johnson 45.03 43.48 4.46 6.87
David Perales 40.68 39.35 3.46 3.43
Jeremiah Martin 30.26 26.14 3.15 6.58
Gabe Reid 42.00 33.54 5.17 4.74
Adam Plant Jr. 37.06 42.12 5.64 5.00

TL;DR:

There are six players in this draft class who project well as pass rushers at the NFL level, they are: Isaiah Foskey, Isaiah McGuire, Jose Ramirez, Yasir Abdullah, Thomas Incoom, and Lonnie Phelps. The base rates for players not meeting our baseline is only 1.5%, and those players should be avoided (no matter how athletic they may be).

Bonus Content:

Here are the numbers for the 2022 class with baseline players highlighted in grey:

Name CFB Sack Metric CFB TFL Metric Tackles/Game RAS
Aidan Hutchinson 27.19 25.70 5 9.89
Kayvon Thibodeaux 36.69 31.98 5.43 9.64
Travon Walker 23.51 23.12 2.47 9.99
Jermaine Johnson 36.59 39.48 5.83 9.21
George Karlaftis 36.39 33.85 3.42 9.24
David Ojabo 50.56 49.46 2.5 9.43
Boye Mafe 45.37 39.42 4.5 9.93
Arnold Ebiketie 33.65 30.38 7 8.93
Josh Paschal 23.13 21.99 4.42 9.72
Nik Bonitto 24.20 29.87 3.25 9.40
Drake Jackson 32.00 22.17 3.36 8.68
Cameron Thomas 36.13 30.38 5.07 8.73
Sam Williams 26.76 24.22 4.38 9.74
Myjai Sanders 31.56 29.87 3.1 8.70
Kingsley Enagbare 33.33 31.68 3.75 6.28
DeAngelo Malone 63.32 50.29 6.71 9.06
Alex Wright 29.39 27.60 3.75 N/A
Dominique Robinson 22.99 20.79 3 9.75
Isaiah Thomas 38.37 38.23 3.17 9.13
Amare Barno 25.82 26.37 3.91 9.21
Tyreke Smith 10.80 10.58 2.6 7.15
Micheal Clemons 26.41 29.54 3.2 8.24
Jeffrey Gunter 44.49 20.13 4.83 9.78
Christopher Allen 13.92 13.63 3.15 9.03
Esezi Otomewo 13.52 11.68 2.31 6.63
Jeremiah Moon 2.45 2.86 4.9 9.21

The Jaguars could potentially trade a later round pick for Cameron Thomas or DeAngelo Malone to help bolster our pass rush.

Updated Base Rates

Went ahead and crunched the numbers for draft classes 2010-2021, they are as follows:

Hit 9+ Sacks in 1st 2 yrs Num. of Players Base Rate %
Met Stats Baselines 17 41 41.5
Picks 1-32 17 66 25.8
Picks 33-64 5 38 13.2
Picks 65-96 4 48 8.3
Picks 97-128 1 32 3.1
Picks 129-160 0 46 0.0
Picks 161-192 0 35 0.0
Picks 193-224 0 32 0.0
Picks 225-256 0 52 0.0
Picks 1-256 27 349 7.7
Stats Baselines Not Met 10 308 3.2

Players who don't meet even a single baseline number have about the same draft odds as a late 3rd/4th rounder, with roughly 60% of draft "hits" meeting or exceeding the baseline numbers pre-draft.

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