Can the Jaguars Beat the Chiefs in Week Two?

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This week's edition comes from "JaxBeachJagsFan".

Here’s the case for the Jaguars beating the Chiefs -- something they’ve been unable to do since 2009:

The Jags are playing at home, and it should be a rowdy and raucous scene at the Bank. We need to let the Chiefs know - if this stadium’s a-rockin’ don’t come a-knockin’.

Last season, the Jags lost twice to the Chiefs in Kansas City, but they were not overmatched in either contest. The latter of the two games was in the divisional round of the playoffs and the good guys lost by seven points after inexplicably fumbling inside the Chiefs’ 10-yardline with five minutes left in the game. This time, however, the game is in J-ville. If you’re going to be there, please make sure everyone in your group is getting loud and obnoxious when Kansas City has the ball. Let’s make it as difficult as humanly possible for Mahomes to operate their offense.

The Jags have not lost a game in their home stadium since October 23, 2022. No, that’s not a typo.

The Jaguars most recent home loss was in Week 7 of last season. The New York Giants prevailed 23-17, but even in that one, the Jags came within one yard of winning the game, with Christian Kirk getting stopped at the 1-yardline as time expired.

The Jags are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall, including regular season and the playoffs.

Over that span, the Jaguars have lost at Kansas City twice, and at Detroit once. That’s it... Ever since that rock-bottom, skid-mark of a game in Week 8 last year, when they lost to the Denver Broncos in London, the Jags have been playing like a top-tier NFL team. And ever since that Denver game, Trevor Lawrence has been one of the highest rated QBs in the league, and the team has ascended right along with him, improving in almost all areas.

The Jags finally have a legitimate number one receiver, for whom opposing defenses must specifically game plan against if they hope to contain him.

This is something we have not had in a while… a long while. Calvin Ridley appears to be the real deal so far in the Jaguars’ offense. The Chiefs need to account for him in their defensive game planning if they don’t want to see him shredding their secondary and putting up large numbers of receptions, yards, and touchdowns. In theory, this should open things up for the other offensive skill players for the Jags.

And, here’s the case for the Chiefs beating the Jaguars… yet again:

The Chiefs are the Chiefs. They will have All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones back in the starting lineup on Sunday, as well as All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, both of whom were not in uniform for their Week One loss to Detroit.

These guys are just too good. If we were getting the Week One version of the Chiefs, without Jones and Kelce, I would say the Jags were likely to win. But, with the Chiefs at full-strength, it’s going to be extremely tough for the Jags to win, unless they have taken a major step forward in their development as a team.

The Jags will have some offensive line injuries to deal with this week. Interior O-line specifically.

Right guard Brandon Scherff’s status is uncertain for Week 2, and center Luke Fortner has also popped up on the injury report this week. Both players are dealing with ankle injuries. Latest word as of Thursday afternoon is that Fortner is slightly further along than Scherff in terms of his readiness to play. I commented on this last week, both during and after the Colts game -- the O-line, particularly the interior, did not look very good. Walker Little had a pretty solid game at left tackle, but the rest of the guys struggled. And with a game-wrecker like Chris Jones ready to come in here on Sunday, these two injuries represent a huge advantage for the Chiefs. It might be too big an advantage for the Jags to overcome.

Mahomes is Mahomes. He’s probably the best who’s ever done it at the QB position, or he will be by the time he retires.

If the Jags are not able to hit Mahomes frequently and get multiple sacks on Sunday, it could be a long day for the home team.

Prediction: A high-scoring game, and a close game, whoever wins.

The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites and the over / under point total is 51.5. So, Vegas is expecting a 28-24 Chiefs victory, or thereabouts.

If I was betting on this game, I would be inclined to take the Jaguars and those three and a half points at home. We might not win, but I really hope we send the red menace back to Missouri with a loss. A loss that signals the beginning of the end of their days of dominance.

The Chiefs have the edge at quarterback over the Jaguars obviously, but it remains to be seen how big that edge is at this moment. Trevor may be able to close that gap somewhat on Sunday, and over the course of this season. The two defenses are comparable, and I would take the Jaguars’ skill position players on offense over that of the Chiefs. They’ve got Kelce and then a bunch of non-difference makers at wide receiver and running back.

Let’s go get that W!! Duuu-vaaaalll!!

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