Travis Etienne over 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
This prop was set at least five yards lower earlier in the week. It’s good to see that not everyone has forgotten about Jacksonville’s RB1.
Etienne cleared this number in nine of 14 starts last season, including the playoffs. His average production across all of those games was 14.7 carries for 77.2 yards (5.2 YPC).
Yes, the Jaguars added backfield competition in third-round rookie Tank Bigsby, but Etienne’s workload might not change that much. He had a 65% share of offensive snaps 59% share of team carries in 14 starts last year. In the five drives Trevor Lawrence played this preseason, Etienne received 67% of snaps and 65% of carries (per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Points).
Calvin Ridley over 62.5 receiving yards (-130)
Calvin Ridley first touchdown scorer (+800)
One of my hot takes from the JaguarReport Podcast this offseason was that Ridley will score a first-quarter touchdown in the season opener. I think he’ll be a significant contributor from the jump: partly because of how impressive his offseason has been; partly because the team could/should make a point to get him going early; but mostly because of Indy’s weakness at outside cornerback.
You can also consider an alternate line here: Ridley over 75 receiving yards at +135 odds or over 100 yards at +350 odds.
Anthony Richardson over 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
Usually I try to back up my arguments with stats, but here I’ll just provide a 30-second video.
Earlier this week, Doug Pederson likened Richardson to Cam Newton, who broke the league’s rookie records for yards and touchdowns on the ground in 2011. The Colts quarterback won’t be a consistent passer from day one but he will be a dangerous rusher. I think Richardson’s talent will lift him over this number regardless of how well Jacksonville’s defense plays him, and Indy will give him plenty of chances to tuck and run in his NFL debut.
Alec Pierce over 29.5 receiving yards (-120)
Pierce had a strong 91% route participation and an astounding 27.5 average depth of target in his preseason snaps with Richardson (per McFarland).
The second-year receiver will be a near-every-down player for the Colts this year. Jaguars fans may remember his game-winning 32-yard touchdown in Week 6 last season -- now, Pierce will pair his vertical receiving chops with a quarterback who can get it to him more often.
I considered choosing Pierce longest catch over 16.5 yards (-120) here, but the overall receiving total is safer in the event he doesn’t make a big play, since one deep completion would likely cash either bet.
Full Week 1 bet slip:
- Travis Etienne over 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Calvin Ridley over 62.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Calvin Ridley first touchdown scorer (+800)
- Anthony Richardson over 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Alec Pierce over 29.5 receiving yards (-120)
I’ll track each of my non-longshot bets (e.g., not including Ridley first TD scorer this week) over the course of the season. Last year my record was 29-25.
What are your favorite player props this week, Jaguars fans? Let us know in the comments!